Blog: Palme D'Or winner hard to predict (AP)

Saturday, May 26, 6 p.m.

The movie that wins Cannes' top prize is, more often than not, something you don't expect.

Before "Fahrenheit 9/11" won in 2004, a lot of people thought a documentary couldn't be a contender, because it would be too hard to compare to the other films.

Last year's lineup had a few truly inventive, brilliant movies that went on to big success, including "Babel," "Pan's Labyrinth" and "Volver." The winner was the first movie to screen, Ken Loach's somber Irish war drama "The Wind that Shakes the Barley."

The moral of the story is, who knows?

But if I were to wager a guess on who will get the Palme d'Or on Sunday, here are my top four picks:

_"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days," by Cristian Mungiu. A wrenching story of an illegal abortion in Ceausescu-era Romania, with a strong performance by Anamaria Marinca as a student who goes through horrors to make sure her friend can get an abortion. It's a strong, socially conscious film, the kind of movie Cannes juries often like to honor after two weeks of glitz and celebrity.

_"No Country for Old Men," by the Coen brothers. Javier Bardem plays a ruthless serial killer in West Texas, and Tommy Lee Jones is an aging lawman on his tracks. It's intelligent and darkly funny — and jarringly bloody. I can see jury president Stephen Frears being a Coen brothers fan, but there's a chance its violence will alienate some jurors.

• "The Edge of Heaven," by Fatih Akin. A followup to "Head On," which won the Berlin festival's Golden Bear for its soul-searching about Turkish immigrants in Germany, it examines some of the same issues of identity and belonging. Akin is only 33 years old and already a festival favorite.

_"Persepolis," by Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud. This original, moving, animated tale about an Iranian girl growing after the 1979 revolution is an adaptation of Satrapi's beloved graphic novels. It's wonderful — but can an animated film compete?

Saturday, May 26, 5 p.m.

James Gray ("The Yards") says he wrote his new crime drama "We Own the Night" especially for Joaquin Phoenix and Mark Wahlberg. Most actors would have accepted the compliment and shut up.

Not Phoenix.

Here's an excerpt from a surreal news conference at Cannes. I've been trying to figure this out, but I'm still not sure what the story here is.

Gray: "I had written the thing for Joaquin and for Mark..."

Phoenix: "Oh please, you know that is not true. You say that — I mean, you say that after you try to cast other people...

Gray: "It is true, don't listen to him, please."

Phoenix: "He tried to cast other people, and they weren't available, and he grew desperate ... "

Gray: "It's true, I was desperate. OK. You're right."

Phoenix: "... and now it has turned into 'I wrote this for Joaquin'. It is preposterous.

Gray: "I was desperate."

Phoenix: "Thank very much, but you did not write it for me."

Gray: "I was desperate, and finally I had to settle for Joaquin and Mark."

Phoenix: "That is totally accurate..."

Gray: "Bottom of the barrel."

Phoenix: "Not Mark, you did actually want Mark from the beginning. But, be honest, James. I was not involved with this. It is not true, he did not - I want to clarify. You did not ..."

Gray: "OK, Joaquin became who he is, and that is what enabled me to make the film. You are never going to be able to hear an answer, because he is sitting to my left, and that is a tragedy for all concerned."

__

Angela Doland